Greenpeace: Point of No Return

original document: http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/PageFiles/480942/Point_Of_No_Return.pdf

executive summary:

With total disregard for unfolding global disaster, the fossil fuel industry is planning 14 massive coal, oil and gas projects that would produce as much new carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2020 as the entire US, and delay action on climate change for more than a decade. The 14 massive projects discussed in this report would add a total of 300 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Gt CO2 e) of new emissions to the atmosphere by 2050 from the extraction, production and burning of 49,600 million tonnes of coal, 29,400 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 260,000 million barrels of oil. This represents an enormous increase in new fossil fuels, and an enormous increase in the impact on the global atmosphere. The research for this new report was carried out by Ecofys, a consulting company expert in sustainable energy solutions and climate policies.

Burning the coal, oil and gas from these 14 projects would significantly push emissions over what climate scientists have identified as the “carbon budget”, the amount of additional CO2 that must not be exceeded if we are to keep climate change from spiraling out of control. The crucial period is the time until 2020.

In 2020, the emissions from the 14 projects showcased in this report – if they all were to go ahead – would raise global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels by 20% and keep the world on a path towards 5°C to 6°C of warming. To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the rise in global temperatures needs to be limited to below 2°C. Therefore, the addition of CO2 of this magnitude in the next few years would push the climate beyond the point of no return, locking the world into a scenario leading to catastrophic climate change, and ensuring that we run out of time.

Emissions are already out of control. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) global CO2 emissions increased by 5% in 2010 for the largest recorded absolute increase, and went on to grow by over 3% in 2011, exceeding worst-case projections that would lead to 5°C to 6°C of long-term warming. To avoid locking us into catastrophic warming, the building of new fossil fuel infrastructure needs to stop within five years – placing the planned dirty energy projects in direct conflict with a livable climate.

The 14 dirty energy projects in this report range from massive expansion of coal mining in China, to large-scale expansion of coal exports from Australia, the US and Indonesia, to the development of risky unconventional sources of oil in the tar sands of Canada, in the Arctic, in the ocean off the coast of Brazil, in Iraq, in the Gulf of Mexico and in Kazakhstan, and to gas production in Africa and the Caspian Sea. They are the biggest dirty energy projects planned in the coming decades.

A handful of governments and a small number of companies in the fossil fuel industry are pushing these projects, apparently without a care about the climate consequences. In November 2012, the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook that no more than one-third of the carbon contained in the proven reserves of fossil fuels can be released into the atmosphere by 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2°C goal. The development of these new coal, oil and gas projects would come at a time when climate scientists are increasingly linking alarming extreme weather events to climate change.

The impact on people if we trigger catastrophic climate change will be terrible. In September 2012, a new report, commissioned by 20 governments, gave an insight into the disaster that is coming. It estimated that climate change is already taking 5 million lives a year. By 2030, deaths could total 100 million.

The huge gap between what governments say they are doing to prevent catastrophic climate change and what they are actually doing is most evident with these 14 projects. The governments that have approved them have all agreed that the global average temperature must be kept below 2°C.

The world is clearly at a Point of No Return: either replace coal, oil and gas with renewable energy, or face a future turned upside down by climate change....

“A handful of governments and a small number of companies in the fossil fuel industry are pushing these [new] projects, apparently without a care about the climate consequences.”



The 14 massive coal, oil and gas extraction projects covered in this report are the worst of the worst. These projects would have the largest emissions of any projects on Earth today and would cause the largest increases in greenhouse gas emissions:

Australia: by 2025, coal exports would increase to 408 million tonnes a year above 2011 levels, pushing associated CO2 emissions up by 1,200 million tonnes a year once the coal is burned. By then, the CO2 emissions caused by Australian coal exports would be three times as large as the emissions from Australia’s entire domestic energy use.

China: China’s five northwestern provinces plan to increase coal production by 620 million tonnes by 2015, generating an additional 1,400 million tonnes of CO2 a year, almost equal to Russia’s emissions in 2010.

The US: plans to export an additional 190 million tonnes of coal a year, mainly through the Pacific Northwest. This would add 420 million tonnes of CO2 a year to global emissions before 2020; more than the entire CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Brazil in 2010.

Indonesia: plans a massive expansion in coal exports from the island of Kalimantan which would add 460 million tonnes of CO2 a year by 2020, creating dire environmental impacts for the local people and the tropical forests.

Canada: production of oil from the tar sands in Alberta will triple from 1.5 to 4.5 million barrels a day by 2035, adding 706 million tonnes of CO2 to global emissions a year. By 2020, the tar sands expansion would add annual emissions of 420 million tonnes of CO2, equal to those of Saudi Arabia.

The Arctic: Oil companies plan to take advantage of melting sea ice in the environmentally sensitive Arctic region to produce up to 8 million barrels a day of oil and gas. If the plan were to succeed, despite mounting technical obstacles and enormous environmental risks,
the drilling would add 520 million tonnes of CO2 a year to global emissions by 2020, as much as the entire national emissions of Canada, and 1,200 million tonnes by 2030.

Brazil: companies intend to extract up to 4 million barrels of oil a day from underneath the Brazilian ocean34, adding 660 million tonnes of CO2 to annual global emissions by 2035.

Gulf of Mexico: plans for new deepwater oil drilling would produce 2.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2016, adding 350 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, equivalent to the emissions of France in 2010.

Venezuela: the Orinoco tar sands will produce 2.3 million barrels of new oil a day by 2035, adding 190 million tonnes of CO2 in 2020.

The US: new production will deliver 310 billion cubic metres a year of shale gas in 2035, adding 280 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020.

Kazakhstan: new production in the Caspian Sea will deliver 2.5 million barrels of oil a day by 2025, adding 290 million tonnes of CO2 in 2020.

Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan: new production in the Caspian Sea will deliver 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas by 2020, adding 240 million tonnes of CO2 emissions

Africa: new production will provide 64 billion cubic metres of natural gas by 2015 and 250 billion cubic metres to 2035, adding 260 million tonnes of CO2 in 2020

Iraq: new production will deliver 1.9 million barrels of oil a day by 2016 and 4.9 million barrels a day by 2035, adding 420 million tonnes of CO2 in 2020

A full discussion of selected projects appears in the Appendix to this report, detailing the anticipated production levels and CO2 emissions, and outlining the significant environmental harm these projects will cause.

original document: http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/PageFiles/480942/Point_Of_No_Return.pdf